The choice is clear, Rachel and Keir: growth, security and a sustainable outlook lie in greater closeness to Europe.
This article was first published on 29 January 2025 in David Gow’s substack at https://davidgow.substack.com/p/back-to-our-european-future.
By David Gow
If this government was serious about boosting growth, it would start negotiating a new UK-EU trade deal with a bespoke customs union at its heart.
This is the single biggest lever ministers could pull to turbocharge our economy. The refusal of the chancellor to even consider it shows a worrying lack of ambition.
Daisy Cooper (LibDem deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson)
Rachel Reeves spoke today (January 29) at a rostrum adorned with the mantra: Kickstart Economic Growth and won plaudits from the business lobbies for her upbeat stance. But she ignored Europe and our links with the EU almost entirely. Similarly, Keir Starmer simply ignored a question at PMQ about joining the PEM, let alone the customs union. Yet Reeves and her boss know that Britain’s chronic growth and productivity problems cannot be solved without closer links with Europe.
Five years after the UK officially left the EU, the cost of Brexit in terms of loss of trade and influence is plain to see. A majority of public opinion now agrees it was a bad decision (Scots who rejected it in the first place above all); only 30% think it a good thing, a record low, while only 22% of even Leave voters believe it’s been a success on the whole. Transfixed by Reform and Nigel Farage, Starmer, however, simply repeats his “red lines” metronomically: no single market, no customs union, no freedom of movement, no rejoin. No doubt, he’ll reiterate all this when he fetches up at an informal EU summit on defence and security on February 3 while mouthing empty phrases about “reset.” No wonder EU leaders – who used to offer the UK substantial concessions/opt-outs and got ingratitude in return – remain wary despite the warmer atmosphere under Labour.
Of course, the EU is neither politically nor economically nirvana. Its traditional engine, the Franco-German tandem, has broken down. It appears paralysed by the bullying of America’s Child Commander in Chief, unable or unwilling to respond even to his threat to seize Greenland. Its role in Israel’s war on the Palestinians has been ignominiously puny. The eurozone economy has been in the doldrums though, if it follows through on the Letta and Draghi reports, even Elon Musk may be forced to acknowledge its revival in the long run. Running down Europe is overdone.
Trump effect
After little more than a week back in the Oval Office, Trump’s paranoid belligerence, notably towards supposed allies, leads to the in escapable conclusion that the old saws of working as a bridge between the US and Europe or “special relationship” don’t work if they ever did. The UK’s future cannot lie in giving way to imperial revenge and retribution. Trump, son of a woman from Lewis, detests Europe. No unctuous choice of words from Peter Mandelson as UK Ambassador to Washington will soften that hatred.
The European Council on Foreign Relations found late last year that Brits pretty much detest him and what he represents, too. Mark Leonard, ECFR director, concludes:
- Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s second election win have transformed the context of EU-UK relations, a new poll by ECFR shows. The prevailing public view in Britain and major EU states is that the relationship should become closer.
- On issues ranging from Ukraine to China, Brits are reluctant to follow Trump’s lead. They look more to Europe than to America – not just for their economic future and migration, but also for their security.
And British attitudes towards Trump are more negative than even those of our fellow Europeans (second in intensity only to those of South Koreans).

Just as AI is forecast to change pretty well everything in everyday life, so Trump 2.0 and its likely knock-on effects uproot our geopolitical outlook for the past 75 years. The only defence shield the US is interested in is that protecting itself. The US and China may even come to an arrangement allowing each other full, untrammelled sway in their respective sphere of interest (hemispheric backyard). That would leave the UK no choice but to (re)join Europe in pursuing economic and military security in the face of Russian expansionism. There’s no future in following Canada and becoming the 52nd state. And it’s not one that the Brits want.
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