At their December summit, EU leaders are expected to back the European Commission call to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova (and to make Georgia a candidate country). Six western Balkans countries are on the EU’s eventual accession list too, writes Kirsty Hughes.
But has this new, highly political and more dynamic push forward to an EU enlargement of up to nine more member states – taking total numbers to 36 – sparked more debate in Scotland or the UK on rejoining the EU? So far, the response has been remarkably low key.
Recent polls for the UK hover around the 60% level for those who would vote to re-join the EU. In Scotland, the figure tends to be higher at around 67% (at the start of this year). Plenty of support there to get a debate going.
In England and Wales, the lack of debate is not so surprising given the Tories and Labour are both backing Brexit (and the LibDems, as they target Tory seats, are not keen to talk about rejoining the EU either).
In Scotland, the lack of positive debate around rejoining the EU perhaps reflects the current doldrums in the independence debate, with support for leaving the UK fairly stable at just under 50%. And the SNP’s travails, including its lower support in the polls, adds to the downbeat mood. Plus, the fact that the Scottish government has sat on its draft paper on how it would go about joining the EU for a year now isn’t driving any positive debate either.
Yet this more positive EU accession dynamic does offer a more hopeful outlook for Scottish independence in the EU. The EU had almost stalled on enlargement in the last two decades. Now, it’s raising its game with the candidates, and debating how the Union itself will need to change if it grows in size by almost one third.
Eight Myths, Concerns and Questions
There’s always though a range of myths around independence in the EU: from negative arguments that Scotland would take forever to join because it wouldn’t have its own currency or its deficit would be too big, to the over-optimistic presumption that Brussels might tell Scotland it can definitely re-join the EU before it has even made the choice to be independent.
Here’s a run through of the eight most common myths, concerns – and a few facts.
1/ Could an independent Scotland re-join the EU?
Yes, any European state can apply to join. That’s set out in the EU’s treaties. But an independent Scotland would have to meet all the accession criteria, including catching up on all the EU’s laws that it’s now no longer implementing.
2/ Would Spain block an independent Scotland’s application?
There is always politics around EU enlargement – as we see today with the positive support for Ukraine, and as we saw back in the 1960s, when President de Gaulle twice blocked the UK’s belated attempts to join (until it finally succeeded in 1973). Still, as long as Scotland has become independent in a legally and constitutionally sound way, and negotiated its divorce from the rest of the UK, then Spain like the other EU member states is highly likely to agree to its accession process getting under way.
It’s notable that Kosovo will be the only current applicant who is still at the ‘potential candidate’ stage if EU leaders agree to give Georgia full candidate status at their December summit. A small group of EU states including Spain do not yet recognise Kosovo. So, the key to real progress in EU accession is getting recognition from all, not least from the state that you have split off from.
3/ Will the EU tell Scotland today that it would be welcome to join the EU if independent?
This is not going to happen, however much some hope and argue that Brexit makes Scotland a special case. The EU or its institutions such as the European Commission cannot make some overarching promise. Accession is agreed at unanimity, after a country has applied. And the EU will not intervene in ongoing constitutional debates in a third country like the UK.
This might have looked different if Scotland had voted for independence after Brexit but before the UK left the EU. Then there could have been arguments to maintain it inside the EU with some special status (a ‘holding pen’ was one suggestion back in 2016) – while full accession talks still took place. But again, that would have been after an independence vote.
There are, though, plenty of people who will support the idea of an independent Scotland joining the EU or say that yes of course it can if it wants to. From a range of politicians, including some current members of the European Parliament, to academics, think tank experts, commentators and others, it’s not hard to find positive statements about the likelihood of an independent Scotland rejoining the EU. But insisting that current EU member state governments or institutions should say so too is to misread European politics. It won’t happen, so it’s not particularly energising to suggest it should.
This has been well understood by the Scottish government, under both Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf, which has been clear that an independent Scotland would look to follow a normal accession process – not look for special treatment.
4/ If Scotland doesn’t become independent and join the EU soon might it miss the boat?
This is not the case. Any European country can apply to join. If in a decade or more, the EU has brought in its current nine candidates (quite a big ‘if’) then it would still be open to more applications – after all, it’s not going to say ‘no’ if Norwegian politics, for instance, changed enough to lead that country to apply to join instead of being in the European Economic Area (EEA).
5/ Is there a quicker route back to the EU by joining the European Economic Area first?
This is a common myth which goes along the lines that it’s really easy and quick to join Efta (the free trade body consisting of Lichtenstein, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland) and then to join the EEA and be back in the EU’s single market. It may well be quick to join Efta, that will depend on its four members (though the benefits are minimal). Efta members can apply to join the EEA (but don’t have to – see Switzerland). But the EEA has 30 members. All the EU member states are in the EEA, alongside Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, so that’s 30 members who have to unanimously agree that an independent Scotland could join.
Since the EEA was launched in 1995, no other states have tried to join it. They’ve all targeted EU membership. So, we’ve not seen the process for a new member state to join. But since being in the EEA means taking on all the EU’s single market laws and taking on various so-called horizontal policies (such as competition policy), it’s reasonable to assume that the EU/EEA would look for the same process of negotiation over accession criteria as for EU candidates who negotiate through a range of ‘chapters’ around the single market (but minus those parts of EU law, such as the euro, that EEA members do not take on board).
It’s also clear that if the government of an independent Scotland went to Brussels and said, ‘can we join the EU and can we first join the EEA?’ that the answer would be to explain if you want to join the EU, then you apply to join it. The EEA is not a temporary holding pen for those who actually aspire to EU membership. Rather, EU accession countries agree an association agreement with the EU to cover trade while membership talks are under way.
So, EEA membership is an alternative to EU membership. And since it means you don’t get a seat at the table, a vote nor a real voice (no Commissioner, no MEPs, no seat at EU summits) then that is why 16 countries joined the EU since 1995 not the EEA.
6/ Will Scotland joining the EU take decades?
It’s more likely to be years than decades. A number of EU experts (myself included) have looked at the EU’s accession processes – and the experience of different countries’ joining – and concluded that an independent Scotland might take around 4-5 years to join the EU. It could take a year to apply, be recognised as a candidate and start talks. Talks could take up to 2 years, and treaty ratification could take 1-2 years.
This depends, of course, how far in the future this happens. The UK and Scotland are already diverging from EU laws, and the more time passes, the greater that divergence becomes. Keir Starmer said recently he doesn’t want the UK to diverge from EU laws, yet he’s also not willing to re-join the EU’s single market or customs union. And the EU is always making new laws, big and small. So, the time it might take Scotland if it tried to join in 2040, is different from the time it would take if it applied to join before 2030 for instance.
Of course, like other candidates, Scotland will have to meet the EU’s rules at the time it joins. And, yes, that applies to the question of the budget deficit too. Candidates are, in general, expected to meet or be close to the 3% budget deficit figure when they join. They do not need to be at this target to start talks. So, the real question here would be whether Scotland could meet EU budget criteria by the time it joined if that was 4 to 5 years after independence itself.
7/ What about the euro and a Scottish currency?
EU member states are expected to join the euro and to commit to that before they join. But candidates do not join the euro when they join the EU; they have to meet those criteria first and that may take time.
Some argue that if an independent Scotland first uses the pound sterling as its currency it wouldn’t qualify for EU membership. But using the pound would not be a block to starting talks. And, if Scotland introduced its own currency say after four or five years of independence, then it would have its own currency just as it joined the EU and so would indeed meet the criteria. Alternatively, if it was moving more slowly than that it could ask for a short transition period of a couple of years (which the EU may or not give). So, not having its own currency might delay Scotland if it took it longer than five years to introduce its own currency.
8/ Can the Windsor Framework show the way to avoid border problems for an independent Scotland in the EU?
Actually, no it can’t. This rather common myth that Scotland could somehow benefit from the particular deal done to keep Northern Ireland in the EU’s single market is based on several misconceptions. Notably (and obviously), if an independent Scotland was applying to join the EU, it would be an independent state, not a part of the UK which Northern Ireland currently is. And the Windsor Framework reflects the special circumstances of the open border on the island of Ireland and the peace process and Good Friday Agreement.
Once it had joined the EU, Scotland would have an EU external border between itself and England and Wales (just as Ireland does). Like Ireland, Scotland may aim to join the Common Travel Area with the UK and Ireland. This might then ease the border for people though not necessarily make it free of some identity checks (as seen too for travel across the Irish sea between Britain and both Northern Ireland and Ireland).
If the UK has renegotiated its deal with the EU to reduce border checks, then that would help ease border controls too for an independent Scotland in the EU. But the border will still be significant, unless the UK re-joins the EU or its single market or its customs union, none of which are currently on the cards.
Alternative Futures
As the UK heads towards a general election next year, the fact that the SNP supports independence in the EU, and the Tories and Labour support continuing with either the current EU-UK deal or a marginally improved version of it, opens up a potentially large area of debate. Taken together with the EU’s newly re-energised enlargement process, this could mean a lively EU debate in Scotland. But that requires political debate in Scotland to come out of the doldrums and engage with wider European debates. Will that happen? That’s certainly a topic for one or several future blogs.
First published on the author’s Europe & Scotland Newsletter on Substack. Her views do not necessarily represent those of EMiS. EMiS campaigns for Scotland to rejoin the EU whether as an independent member state – or as part of the UK.
The European Movement in Scotland is committed to promoting the essential European value of free speech. Consequently, we regularly publish articles by leading academics, journalists and others discussing issues germane to Scotland’s place in Europe. Such articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Movement in Scotland.
